Electricité de France SA (EDF) has revised its nuclear production forecast for 2024 upward, projecting output to fall between 340 and 360 terawatt-hours (TWh), an increase from the previous estimate of 315 to 345 TWh. This adjustment, announced late Monday, reflects improved maintenance performance and the absence of major weather disruptions this summer. Since early 2024, EDF has successfully reconnected 11 reactors to the grid ahead of schedule.
The increase in output is a significant turnaround from the previous two years, which were marred by unplanned shutdowns due to corrosion issues that impacted the utility’s performance and European electricity markets. Enhanced generation from EDF’s nuclear fleet—a crucial component of Western Europe’s power system—has helped stabilize wholesale electricity prices and mitigate the rise in energy bills seen during the region’s energy crisis.
In the first half of the year, France achieved record electricity exports, thanks to increased nuclear and renewable energy production coupled with steady demand. This represents a sharp recovery from 2022, when France became a net importer of power for the first time since 1980 due to extensive reactor outages.
However, EDF has delayed the connection of a new reactor at the Flamanville plant to the grid. Originally expected this summer, the first connection is now scheduled for the end of autumn. The delay follows the French nuclear safety authority’s recent approval to initiate the first nuclear reaction at the Flamanville 3 plant, a 1.6-gigawatt European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) located in northwestern France. Once operational, this new reactor will be added to EDF’s fleet of 56 units, which provided approximately two-thirds of France’s power last year.
Regis Clement, EDF’s deputy head for nuclear production, stated that the first nuclear reaction will occur within hours, with the reactor expected to be connected to the grid by late autumn once it reaches 25% of its capacity. The reactor will undergo further testing and gradual ramp-up to full power, with an estimated 14 terawatt-hours of generation before its first planned outage, which is anticipated in 2026.
The commissioning of the Flamanville reactor marks a critical milestone for EDF, concluding a 17-year construction process marked by challenges including concrete deficiencies and faulty welds. The reactor’s delayed completion has raised concerns about the French nuclear industry’s ability to deliver new projects on time, an issue that could impact future plans for constructing a fleet of six new reactors in France.
EDF’s construction of similar reactors in the UK has also faced delays and cost overruns, complicating funding efforts for additional EPR units. In contrast, EDF and its Chinese partner have successfully completed two EPR units in China over the past decade with limited delays. Additionally, a pioneering EPR in Finland began operations last year, albeit 14 years later than initially scheduled.
