Experts predict that 2025 will serve as a pivotal year for the real estate sector in Ho Chi Minh City (HCM City), setting the stage for a full recovery by 2026. After enduring significant challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic downturn, the market is now showing signs of renewal.
2023 was a particularly challenging year for the market, with negative growth continuing until the first quarter of 2024. However, recovery began in the latter half of 2024, resulting in a robust 9% growth for the year. Despite these promising trends, Lê Hoàng Châu, Chairman of the HCM City Real-Estate Association (HoREA), cautions that while recovery is underway, the market will continue to face hurdles, including limited supply, especially in the affordable housing and social housing sectors.
Legal obstacles that have stalled various projects are expected to be addressed in 2025, which will likely lead to a steady increase in supply. As the market stabilizes, prices are anticipated to rise gradually, bringing homeownership within reach for a larger segment of the population.
Real estate research firms, CBRE and JLL, forecast that housing supply in HCM City will improve significantly in the coming years. CBRE predicts that the city will see the addition of 8,000 to 9,000 housing units in 2025, with around 11,000 more units expected by 2026. Meanwhile, JLL anticipates that between 6,000 and 7,000 high-end apartments and 4,000 ready-built landed units will enter the market between late 2024 and 2025.
In terms of demand, end-users, particularly those seeking affordable properties with clear legal status, will continue to drive the market in 2025. Although developers are likely to increase prices in new projects, incentives may be offered to attract buyers. The central area of HCM City remains a hotspot for investment, while infrastructure improvements, such as new metro lines and road developments, are expected to spur growth in the outskirts. Apartments are predicted to remain the most popular property type, with land plots expected to see a recovery by late 2025.
According to Đinh Minh Tuấn of batdongsan.com.vn, demand in the southern market has risen by about 28% as cash flow begins to seek opportunities. He notes that the apartment and private house segments are showing the earliest signs of recovery.
Trần Hoàng Quân, Director of the HCM City Department of Construction, confirmed that several new projects were approved in 2024, with 34 out of 64 real estate projects having cleared their obstacles by the end of the year. He added that 17 residential projects received investment approvals, and construction permits were issued for four housing projects during the year.
Despite the slow pace of recovery, Quân emphasized that the easing of legal barriers and the approval of new projects should lead to positive growth in 2025. He also pointed out that new policies related to land, housing, real estate, and credit—effective from August 2024—are expected to have a positive impact on the market. Additionally, the adjustment of land prices in the city may result in modest price increases in certain segments.
Looking ahead, the city plans to continue refining urban planning and investment procedures, while researching tax policies to ensure fair access to housing. The real estate sector is expected to see a gradual but steady recovery, with the market poised for further growth in 2025 and beyond.
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