Goldman Sachs has attributed the recent dip in gold prices to short-term technical factors, including position liquidations linked to broader equity market weaknesses and some shifts into alternative assets. Despite this, the bank maintains that gold prices will have enduring support in the medium term.
The sell-off was triggered by the U.S. government’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, a move that Goldman believes will weigh on global growth and strengthen the case for defensive assets like gold. Importantly, gold was exempted from the new import duties, and analysts do not anticipate it being targeted in the future.
Goldman forecasts structural demand for gold from emerging market central banks and an anticipated surge in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows due to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing recession concerns. These factors are expected to provide additional support to the precious metal.
“We maintain our $3,300 per ounce gold year-end forecast, with a range of $3,250 to $3,520, reflecting mostly upside risks for investors positioning,” the bank said. “We continue to see risks relative to our forecast skewed to the upside.”
Goldman’s outlook on gold contrasts sharply with its bearish stance on other commodities. The bank has reduced its December 2025 price forecasts for Brent and WTI oil to $66 and $62 per barrel, respectively, down from earlier predictions of $71 and $67. Weaker global growth expectations and an unexpected OPEC decision to increase May output have negatively impacted the oil outlook.
In the industrial metals sector, Goldman sees near-term risks for copper, especially if trade tensions escalate, potentially pushing prices below $9,000 per ton in the second quarter.
However, gold remains a standout in Goldman’s analysis. The bank believes that macroeconomic risks and lighter investor positioning create the potential for further gains in the gold market. “We see this, along with any potential dips in the gold market, as an opportunity for investors to go long on gold,” Goldman stated.
