Speculation is intensifying on social media regarding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with expectations rising that a decision could be made as early as Friday.
The buzz gained momentum after a tweet from Grayscale’s legal chief hinted at progress, stating he was “just filling out some forms.” Additionally, a tweet from a reporter further fueled the speculation, suggesting that approval might come within the next day.
Despite the anticipation, several analysts are still leaning toward potential approvals next week. TechCrunch reporter Jacquelyn Melinek, in a Jan. 4 post on X (formerly Twitter), cited sources close to the matter, indicating the likelihood of multiple ETF approvals and expressing expectations for developments within the coming days.
A cryptic tweet from Grayscale’s chief legal officer, declaring, “Just filling out some forms,” has attracted significant attention, contributing to the speculation surrounding a potential ETF approval. The hashtag #BTCETF and related terms are currently trending on Twitter, coinciding with a 3.4% increase in the price of Bitcoin in the last 24 hours following a sharp drawdown on Jan. 3, according to TradingView data.
While the rumor mill is in full swing on social media, analysts are cautious about the frenzy. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart described much of the speculation around a Jan. 5 approval as noise, maintaining his expectation that approval may come between Jan. 8 and 10.
Attorney and commercial litigator Joe Carlasare highlighted the ongoing public comment period for several ETF applications, closing at midnight on Jan. 5, making it “very unlikely” for approval to be granted before the start of next week.
Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas explained that the SEC is currently providing final comments, and issuers are expected to file their final 19b-4 and S-1 forms soon afterward. Both forms need approval by the SEC before an ETF can commence trading, with an approved 19b-4 form being a prerequisite for the effective approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Despite the social media speculation, Scott Johnsson, the general partner at VB Capital, expressed skepticism about an ETF approval being issued before next week, raising questions about the feasibility of simultaneous approvals for 19b-4 applications.
A total of 14 issuers, including BlackRock, Valkyrie, ARK Invest/21 Shares, Bitwise, and Fidelity, are competing for approval to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF.
