The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its inaugural outlook for 2025, predicting a groundbreaking record for U.S. crude oil production at 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd). This forecast, detailed in the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook report published on Tuesday, anticipates continued growth in production over the next two years, primarily propelled by improvements in well efficiency.
Despite the optimistic outlook, the EIA acknowledges a potential slowdown in growth due to a reduction in active drilling rigs. The report emphasizes the pivotal role of increasing well efficiency in sustaining the upward trajectory of U.S. crude oil production.
In addition to the projected milestone in crude oil production, the EIA forecasts a deceleration in global liquid fuels production growth, estimating a modest increase of 0.6 million bpd in 2024, influenced by OPEC supply restraint. However, the report anticipates a rebound, with global liquid fuels production surging to 1.6 million bpd in 2025.
The EIA also outlined expectations for U.S. dry natural gas production, projecting a growth rate of 1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025, a notable decrease from the 4.0 Bcf/d estimated for 2023. Conversely, U.S. coal production is predicted to witness a substantial decline, plummeting by over 90 million short tons to less than 430 million short tons in 2025. This represents the lowest level of coal production in the United States since the early 1960s, according to the EIA’s report.
Addressing crude oil prices, the EIA foresees Brent prices falling to $79 per barrel in 2025, with production growth expected to marginally outpace demand growth. The 2024 estimate places crude oil prices at $82 per barrel. The EIA attributes the forecast of minimal price change to the anticipation of a relatively balanced global supply and demand scenario for petroleum liquids.
Finally, the EIA predicts a decline in U.S. retail gasoline prices, forecasting an average of $3.20 per gallon in 2025 compared to $3.50 per gallon in 2023. This projection aligns with the overall outlook for stable crude oil prices and balanced supply and demand dynamics in the petroleum market.
